Heading Out

Seeking the winds that help to sail on Shakespeare's tide.

Monday, January 31, 2005

Trouble, trouble oil and bubble

It is interesting to note that China is buying up the excess production from Venezuela, and even new production. This has to be from the heavy crudes that have otherwise not found a market. Given that Saudi excess production is is heavy sour crude, and that the Chinese have been looking at getting into the oil sand production in Canada, this would suggest that they are getting out ahead of the pack in buying up the remaining currently difficult to market heavy oils. Unfortunately this means that when production of the more desirable sweet crudes drops the volumes that the rest of the world would anticipate moving into will have already been committed to China. Now if they could just find the tankers to ship the oil . .

Incidentally one of the current pinions of the US economy has been the use of the dollar in oil sales. It is interesting to note that the Chinese appear to have decided that with our budget so far out of balance, that enough might be enough. Which may also be why Bill Gates is also betting against it. Sounds as though trips to Europe are going to get even more expensive.

Given that Britain will apparently start being a net importer of natural gas this year, and of oil within the next two or three, it would appear that we had better start finding other places that can replace their contribution to the US supply. I guess that would most likely mean Libya who would like to see their production rise to 3 mbd.

All in all this could be an interesting year.

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