Heading Out

Seeking the winds that help to sail on Shakespeare's tide.

Sunday, November 28, 2004


As I use this in part to record significant points in our life, as well as the world in general, there are a couple of items of note. There have been a couple of news items that seem to indicate that my point about Chinese influence were not misguided. More to the point China is still in the awkward stage of not having enough power to meet current demand. With an economy that averages a 9% growth there is very little they can do but find additional sources of energy and material.

Those who predict little growth in world demand for energy in the next 12 months are ignoring this reality. They are desperately laying pipe in Beijing at present to try and meet the oil supply needs for this winter. Given a growth need that is not either reducing nor being met and also given the fact that China holds vast quantities of US debt is worrying, There are significant, positive for them, reasons that they should spent these savings and additional cash accruals to acquire the energy supplies that they need, (rather than just loaning it to the US to cover the growing US deficit - which is creating a secondary problem). This reality does not bode well, when one must also recognize that both the US and the European Union are also now increasingly and vitally interested in those same reserves. The folk that hold the gold, as they say, call the tune. And who holds the American debt and gold?

I will blog about the six books that I just acquired on this unpleasant pre-view of the future at some length, but later. Yet as a short comment, the Deffeyes book is a very good place to start, it is written in language and with a style that makes me wish I had been his student. He lays out a case that is realistically difficult to refute, that against a world growing demand that increases by more than 2 mbd (million barrels of oil a day) that the available supply will peak, and begin to fail to meet the demand by around Thanskgiving next year. Illustratively, I am amused by the thought he suggests, that Dr. Rice can be equated to a millihelen (I told you that you need to read this book).

In family news had thought that the Advocate's companion this week should be referred to as the Divine. After a short, lubricated, discussion this evening the conclusion is rather that future reference will be to the Bishop, just so that you know to whom this will now apply. (The psuedonyms are a source of amusement - though only one or two individuals (S ?) hold the key.


At 7:38 AM, Blogger anbruch said...

Gosh, you're scaring me. And we have to rely on an adminstration that advocates we all put our head in the sand and whistle a happy tune to navigate us through this coming crisis. I think I'm going to be sick.


At 8:49 PM, Blogger Heading out said...

Soft chuckle! If I am scaring you, you have no idea what this is doing to some of us. The problem is that when we go outside our little enclave of folk that understand the reality it is very much akin to relieving oneself into a prevailing breeze of high velocity.

I am going to blog on this a tad again tonight I think, but when even al Jazeera calls the Saudi's liars in terms of their claimed production (as they did today) one can see a big problem coming.

To think that an Administration that comes out of the oil patch, and which has a pile of connections that stand to get unbelievably wealthy out of this, does not understand what is going on is to be just a tad naive.


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